CONSUMERS MORE CONFIDENT BUT STILL TRADING DOWN
The average US consumer is still beleagured by consumer debt, which stands now at an incredible 95% of GDP (compared to 66% in 1997), but they are becoming a little more confident, according to a research report by the folks at Boston Consulting Group. "Despite this hard truth about the magnitude of the recovery challenge in the
For example: (1) Anxiety about the future is down 9% from the peak seen a year ago. (2) 23% now feel insecure in their jobs, compared to 33% a year ago. (3) 37% are concerned about their financial security, down from 53% last year. (4) 46% of consumers said they intended to cut their spending, compared to 73% last year.
But consumers are still wary. Nearly 50% claim to have been personally affected by the crisis. And their confidence in the recovery has experienced a setback from six months ago, when fewer consumers said they thought the economy would get worse in the coming year. They also expect improvement to take several years. Plus, they are "still committed to the budget-stretching mechanisms they have been employing during the past 18 months." The new normal is being cheap.
HOW IT APPLIES TO WINE & SPIRITS. Although the intention to cut back on "nonessentials" is down from peak levels - 65% of consumers still claim they will cut back, down from 81% a year ago - plans to spend more time hunting for the best deals or to buy on promotion continue unabated. A total of 53% say they will trade down in spirits, while 17% said they will trade up. With wine, 50% plan on trading down and 18% will trade up.
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